2011 Week 14 Key NFL Trends

Courtesy StatFox.com

OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -11, Total: 53.5

 The Raiders won’t be able to win outright in Lambeau, but they are 5-1 ATS on the road (4-2 SU) this year and have the ability to beat good teams if their running game is clicking. The pick here is for OAKLAND to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Raiders:

Play Against - Favorites (GREEN BAY) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game.(36-10 since 1983.) (78.3%, +25 units. Rating = 3*).

And this three-star FoxSheets trend expects the OVER to occur.

Mike McCarthy is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 31.5, OPPONENT 23.1 - (Rating = 3*).

CHICAGO BEARS (7-5) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -3, Total: 36.5

...how many times in a row can Tebow pull a rabbit out of a hat? He’s led his team to five straight wins (SU and ATS), but the magic ends this week against a strong Bears defense. The pick here is CHICAGO to win as an underdog over a Denver squad that is 1-4 ATS at home this year.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Bears:

CHICAGO is 27-12 ATS (69.2%, +13.8 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 19.4, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 1*).

Rare six-star FoxSheets trend that incorporates both teams, expects the OVER to occur on Sunday.
Play Over - Any team against the total (CHICAGO, DENVER) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. (70-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.4%, +52.4 units. Rating = 6*).

NOTES

NEW ORLEANS at TENNESSEE
Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (TENNESSEE) off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record in the second half of the season
89-45 since 1997.  ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
2-0 this year.  ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

NY GIANTS at DALLAS
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons.  ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
4-3 this year.  ( 57.1% | 0.7 units )