2011 Week 13 Key NFL Trends

Courtesy StatFox.com

DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-9)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -2, Total: 37.5

The Broncos look to extend their win streak to five games when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.
Obviously, the headlines are all about Tim Tebow. And the Broncos are 5-1 SU and ATS since Tebow took over under center. But the real difference has been a defense that’s playing far better, as Denver has allowed a total of 36 points in its past three games. Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) will be hobbled if he even suits up. In the past two seasons, Minnesota is 0-6 ATS when the total is a moderate number between 35.5 and 42 points. And Denver has done a great job rushing the football outside Colorado’s thin air, rumbling for 185 yards on 4.9 YPC in its six road games this year (5-1 ATS). Expect Tebow and underdog DENVER to win again on Sunday.

This four-star FoxSheets trend advises bettors to stay away from the Vikings:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games, in weeks 10 through 13. (24-3 since 1983.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*).


BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-3) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-7)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -6.5, Total: 38
Cleveland’s struggling offense is due for a breakout game, but it won’t likely be Sunday when it hosts the great defense of Baltimore.

The Ravens have a big advantage talent-wise, and they’re well-rested after smothering 9-1 San Francisco on Thanksgiving Day. But Baltimore has been wildly inconsistent on the road, suffering upsets in Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle already this season. They turned it over multiple times in each of those games. The Browns offense seems hopeless. Cleveland has scored a total of 30 points in its past four meetings with the Ravens, and the Browns have lost six in a row SU (1-5 ATS) to Baltimore. The return of RB Peyton Hillis to the lineup gives them at least a little bit of hope, but this a Cleveland team that is 2-5-1 ATS this year. The Browns are also 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the past two seasons. The more likely scenario on Sunday is for another BALTIMORE win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Ravens:

Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) - a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG) after 8+ games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. (27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 3*).


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-7) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 43
Philadelphia could be missing Michael Vick for a third straight game when it travels to Seattle on a short week Thursday night to face the Seahawks.

The Eagles have a big advantage talent-wise, but they’ve been inconsistent all year. There’s no telling what to expect from them when they visit CenturyLink Field, always a surprisingly tough place to play. The Seahawks most recently upended the Ravens at home, thanks to a +3 margin in the turnover department. The Eagles have been incredibly turnover-prone, giving it away 25 times with at least two turnovers in every game but three. Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch is the kind of power runner that will cause problems for Philly’s front seven, but Seattle’s run defense will be more exposed. Redskins rookie Roy Helu ran all over the Seahawks last week (108 yards on 23 carries) and Philly’s LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 1,050 rushing yards. Philly QB Michael Vick (ribs) is not expected to be ready for this game, but Vince Young has been an adequate fill-in (329 passing YPG) in Vick’s absence. Since the start of 2010, the Eagles are 6-0 ATS on the road when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, giving further ammunition for PHILADELPHIA as the pick on Thursday.

This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Eagles to prevail:

Andy Reid is 14-3 ATS (82.4%, +10.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 29.2, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*).