New England Patritots -7.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS
Like many I have gotten caught up with Tebow over the last couple of weeks. What we all know is that Tim Tebow has led Denver to seven Straight Up ('SU') wins in eight games. The DENVER BRONCOS have covered in six of those – five as an Underdog. So this game sets up perfectly for the Mile High Messiah. The Patrtiots, who are capturing an estimated 73% of the betting public are 2-5 Against the Spread ('ATS') in their last seven when laying points, 1-4 ATS in the last five versus the Broncos (including playoffs since 2005), and 0-3 ATS in their last three trips to Denver. What people are not focussed on is that the the last time the Patriots lost SU to an AFC West team was the 2009 loss to the Broncos in Mile High. This year, favored by 6 or more points versus their AFC West foes, the Patriots are an awesome 3-0 SU and ATS in averaging 32 points per game.
Even more interesting is that the Broncos are 7-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins and 6-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.
In general, Home teams like the Broncos coming off of five or more straight up wins are 53-36, 59.6% ATS since 2005. In an added note when the hot home team are an underdog like Denver is, the home fade is 7-4-1, 63.6 percent ATS. Stat Fox noting that Home underdogs that are an average offensive team, 18 to 23 points per game ('PPG') against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 35-11 since 1983 (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).
Washington Redskins vs N.Y. GIANTS -7
Sports Wagers call the Giants ' pesky'. 'Can never count them out, can you? But for whatever reason, they are better for our pocketbooks when taking points. That thought is corroborated when you track the G-men’s 1-11 mark versus spread in past 12 home games against teams with a losing record. Jabar Gaffney’s “Lambeau Leap” into the lap of an unconcerned Patriots fan and the surrounding Redskins fans was a bigger flop than Danny Snyder has been as a team owner. So yeah. the Redskins have their warts but their past four contests have all been competitive with Dallas, the Jets and Patriots included in that set. There is not much separating the NFC East teams and Washington plays its division tough with five covers in past six against its foes.
Cleveland Browns vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS -6.5
Carlo Campanella reminds us that Arizona is just 6-7, but one of the hottest teams in the NFL during their current 5-1 SU & ATS winning run and should have no trouble continuing this run as they host a Browns crew that's dropped 6 of their last 7 games (1-6 SU & 3-4 ATS). Arizona has been solid at home all year, owning a 4-2 SU & ATS record while beating Playoff caliber teams like Dallas and San Francisco. You'd have to go back almost 2 months, to October 23rd, to find the last time Arizona lost at home and that came against another Playoff caliber team in Pittsburgh (10-3). Willing to lay the points against a struggling Browns offense that hasn't passed for more than 225 yards in 9 STRAIGHT games and only did it once in their first 13 games!
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