Week 9 Key NFL Trends - The second half of the season begins

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

If there was ever an Achilles heel for the New Orleans Saints, it is the CAROLINA PANTHERS, 9-1 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, who in being favored by as many as 10 points as well as an Underdog by as many as 11 points, are an amazing 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU over the last two years in the matchups with the New Orleans Saints. The Saints, 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS as 3.5-7.5 point Favorites over the last three seasons, who are averaging over 282 passing yards per game, will hope that Brees, 92.6 rating, can resuscitate their 2007 form, and put up over 30 points in the game. More likely, it is the Saints D allowing only 285 yards per game that will pin down a struggling Panthers team managing only 12 points per game.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

If you are one of those on the west coast readying to dust off your OAKLAND RAIDERS cap and put the Chargers hat back in the closet, you may want to wait for one more week for it is the Road team in their matchups with the Kansas City Chiefs, 3-1 ATS as a Road Underdog of 3 points or less over the last three seasons, that has gone 12-1 ATS since 2003. While many are touting McFadden, 5.5 yards per rush, the real question is how the Raiders defense is allowing 4.7 yards per rush themselves with stop a Chiefs rushing attack that is powering 190.4 rushing yards per game. Two of the top defenses in both turnovers and 3rd down percentage, this one will decided by Cassel, 90.4 rating or Campbell, 82.5 rating.
ADVANTAGE CHIEFS

FIRST LOOK

With the ghosts of trends past returning last week, the CLEVELAND BROWNS, 0-5 SU and 2-2 ATS as 3.5-7.5 point Underdogs over the last three seasons, who had surprisingly gone 2-0 SU and ATS after their bye week prior to being shut out in 2009 under Mangini, arrive having not beaten the New England Patriots, 8-3 ATS after two consecutive wins over the last three seasons, SU or ATS since Chris Palmer coached the Browns in 2000; 0-4 ATS since that upset. While it is has been 3 years since their last matchup, with the spread opening at its lowest in over 10 years, the sportsbooks clearly think that this is where Brady, 96.6 rating, stumbles. While the Patriots defense is allowing more yards per play at 4.7 yards per play, and a 47.4 3rd down percentage, the +7 in turnovers will be the difference maker in this one.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

If you follow the Bucs/Falcons rivalry, it is not surprising that Morris spoke out this week as he knows that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during their darkest days have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four matchups with the ATLANTA FALCONS; two of these games decided by 3 points. The Falcons arriving 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS as 3.5-9.5 Favorites over the last three seasons. With the Falcons offensive line allowing 13 sacks, there may even be a chance for the Bucs D line to get some pressure. One thing is for sure, the Bucs +8 turnover ratio will definitely come into play. With the Falcons allowing 260.3 passing yards per game, the Bucs, 5-1 ATS in Dome games and 2-0 ATS as Road Dogs of 7.5-10 points over the last three seasons, who are powering 216.9 passing yards per game, will not be afraid to head to the air while the Falcons 'ground and pound' to play for a win by a field goal.
ADVANTAGE BUCCANEERS

KING TRENDS



THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 11.4.10
updated 11.7.10