Week 10 Key NFL Trends - The Director is back on his winning ways.

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

It is hard to believe that the Division leading St. Louis Rams are Dogs of 6 points as the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS; especially since they are on a 3-0 run ATS in their last three matchups with the Rams. Maybe is it the fact that while the Rams, 3-11 ATS versus Division opponents over the last three seasons, they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games off the bye. Of course, they have been Underdogs of over 12 points per game. 2-1 SU in those games, and losing by only 5 points to the Super Bowl Champion Saints in 2009, Spagnuolo knows that San Francisco, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off the bye, will also be well rested. The real challenge for the Rams is that they are 1-3 ATS, 0-4 SU, versus the Niners in their last four matchups. Managing only 6 total points in 2009, the Niners, 5-2 ATS as 3.5-9.5 point Favorites, 6-2 ATS in November over the last three seasons, won by an average of 30 points per game. While the teams look very similar on paper, it is the positive turnover ratio versus the Niners -4 turnover ratio that may just been difference in this one.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

As we creep toward Thanksgiving, there are teams that are still hangin' on by a thread. One Conference matchup eyes are on are the Houston Texans, who are arrive 2-5-1 ATS this season. Having seen their season slide, the Texans, 2-0 ATS as Road Dogs of 3 points or less over the last three seasons, arrive to face the challenge of the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, who are 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU, in their last three matchups at Home versus the Texans; the Jaguars managing over 30 points per game in each of the three contests. The challenge for Del Rio, 8-25 ATS on grass, 2-12 ATS as a Favorite over the last three seasons, is his 1-3 record ATS after their bye week, including the 2006 loss to the Texans.
ADVANTAGE TEXANS

FIRST LOOK

If there was ever an interesting matchup, it is the New York Jets arrival in Cleveland. In addition to the CLEVELAND BROWNS recent 2-0 run ATS, the Browns, 3-0 ATS versus the AFC East over the last three seasons, are actually 2-0 run ATS in their last two matchups with the Jets. Mangini, 0-2 ATS versus the Browns during his reign with the Jets, 3-1 ATS versus the AFC North over the last three seasons, lost by an average of 6.5 points per game. With these two teams looking so much like one another, the question is whether or not Sanchez, 79.4 rating, can take advantage of a Browns passing defense allowing 240.5 passing yards per game. With both of these teams in the positive in the turnover ratio, this one will come down to who can cause the the big turnover.
ADVANTAGE BROWNS




KING TRENDS



THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 11.12.10
updated 11.12.10