Week 10 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

After a wild Week 8 and 9, the division rivalries return. Before their upset victory in Week, the Cincinnati Bengals were no match for the PITTSBURGH STEELERS, who arrive 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS as Home Favorites of 3.5-7 points over the last three seasons. However, if you read further between the lines, the Steelers, who are one of the few teams with a defense stronger than the Bengals this year AFC, are actually 17-15 ATS versus the Conference, and 4-5 ATS revenging a loss, over the last 3 seasons; the Steelers allowing just 4.8 yards per play. The Bengals, who are allowing just 65 rushing yards per game in their last four games, are 5-0 ATS this season as Underdogs.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Favored by more points than they have been in over 10 years, Brett Favre, 106 rating, and the MINNESOTA VIKINGS return rested to the dome to take on their division rival Detroit Lions, who are 0-4 ATS on the Road in 2009, outscored by 13 points per game in their last 4 games. 1-2 ATS at Home in 2009, the Vikings, have averaged nearly 400 yards per game in their last 4 games; powering 31 sacks thus far in 2009. Up until the 2 point SU loss here in 2008, the Vikings had gone 3-0 ATS versus the Lions in Minnesota. The real question mark is whether the Vikings, 2-2-1 ATS in their 5 games versus the Lions, can recapture their form from 2007; the only time in the last 5 years that the Vikings have exceeded a 16.5 margin as they won by 32 points.

FIRST LOOK

Having seemingly been unraveled by Brett Favre, and the Vikings, the Packers, who were embarrassed by the the Buccaneers, now face a streaking Dallas Cowboys team that is 2-0 ATS the Packers in their last 2 matchups. Although the Packers are allowing only 149 passing yards per game in their last 4 games, the Cowboys, who are averaging over 400 offensive yards per game in their last 4 games, 6.5 yards per play in 2009, seem to have hit their stride behind Romo, 95.8 rating to Austin, 22.7 yards per catch. Having outscored them by over 10 points per game in their last two matchups, there seems to be little evidence with the Packers having alowed 37 sacks in 2009 to support a turning of the tide.
ADVANTAGE COWBOYS

One of the big questions in the AFC rivalry is whether Cable will go the way of Johnson. One of the most interesting trends in the Chiefs Raiders matchup, it is that the Away team, including their Week 2 matchup in Kansas City, that has gone 7-0 ATS. Even though McFadden, 3.1 yards per rush, may be back on offense for the Raiders, the Chiefs, who themselves have been outscored by 10 points per game in their last 4 games, will look to exploit the OAKLAND RAIDERS, who have been outscored by 16 points per game in their last 4 games.
ADVANTAGE CHIEFS

KING TRENDS

After finding his groove in October, Warner, 88 rating, will look to try to exploit the Seattle Seahawks, who have gone 1-4 ATS since Whisenhunt's arrival in Arizona, and have not won ATS here since 2005. With the Cardinals allowing only 15 sacks, Warner will look to take advantage of the Seahawks defense with a passing attack averaging 262.4 passing yards per game in their last 4 games. Having won by 24 points in Week 6, there is little reason to believe that a Seahawks team averaging only 4.8 yards per play to turn the tables in this rivalry.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS

The first order of business on John Harbaugh's arrival in Baltimore, it was to turn the trend on the CLEVELAND BROWNS, who had gone 4-0 ATS in 2006-2007. Since his arrival, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 3-0 ATS, and have outscored the Browns by nearly 20 points per game in those matchups. With both Anderson and Quinn maintaining ratings under 65, the Browns, who are averaging only 3.8 yards per play, will have serious trouble with a Ravens defense coming off a big loss in Cincinnati. With their own defense allowing over 400 yards per game in their last 4 games, look for Flacco to immediately look drive the ball downfield to Mason and Washington, both averaging over 13 yards per catch.
ADVANTAGE RAVENS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 11.11.09
updated 11.14.09