Week 11 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.



DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Sure. You too have heard about the troubles the NY Jets have had since their Week 2 upset of the New England Patriots. Still, the Jets still outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 points in their last 4 games. While Sanchez' rating has dropped to 66.5, the Patriots' Brady is smokin' at 100.6. Still, Patriots fans have to be concerned given the Patriots are 3-2 ATS at Home this year, and are 1-2 Straight Up ('SU') and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 Regular Season matchups with the Jets in New England over the last three years. The Patriots entering as high as 20.5 Favorites in 2007.

FIRST LOOK

With the San Diego Chargers outscoring opponents by 11 points per game in their 4 games on the backs of its defense, it is looking a lot a sequel to 2008. On the other hand, Orton's injury, 91.1 rating, has capped a choke in Denver as the Broncos enter outscored by 10 points in their last 4 games. The losing streak is particularly challenging for DENVER BRONCOS fans this week as the Broncos are 1-1-3 ATS in their last 5 games with the Chargers; 0-2-3 ATS in their last 5 matchups here in Denver. Although the Broncos have piled on 29 sacks this season, this offense that is managing less than 275 yards per game in its last 4 games, is very different than the squad that upset the Chargers by 11 points in Week 6.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

It may not be one of the more exciting matchups considering the Rams have been outscored by nearly 9 points per game in allowing nearly 400 yards per game over the last 4 games. That is good news for the Arizona Cardinals, who seem to be reliving a sequel to their 2008 season as Warner, 91 rating, finds his last season groove. 4-0 ATS on the Road in 2008, and averaging nearly 400 yards of offense per game in their last 4 games, the Cardinals will look to continue their 3-0 run ATS in their last 3 matchups versus the Rams; outscoring the Rams by 25 points per game in those matchups. Even more impressive has been the Cardinals 4-1 run ATS in their last 5 games in St. Louis. With the Rams managing only 15 sacks, and allowing 5.9 yards per play, Warner should have plenty of room to stumble before running up the score.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS

KING TRENDS

Cincinnati could not be happier to head to Oakland where they are 1-0 ATS, and see the Indianapolis Colts arrive in Baltimore. If there is ever a place to fight off the demons of an undefeated season, it is here where the Colts have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Regular Season and Playoff games, but have outscored the Ravens by over 25 points per game in their last 2 matchups. 4-0 ATS on the Road this year, the Ravens will have their hands full with a Colts offense averaging nearly 400 yards per game in their last 4 games. With both of these offense allowing less than 100 yards per game, and less than 5 yards per play, this one actually may turn out to be a defensive struggle. Of course, you have keep in mind that the Colts have allowed only 8 sacks in 2009.
ADVANTAGE COLTS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 11.19.09
updated 11.20.09