Week 5 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

One has to shake your head at the thought of the TENNESSEE TITANS arriving Home having gone 5-1 Against the Spread ('ATS') in their last 6 matchups with the Indianapolis Colts; 3-0 ATS in their last 3 matchups in Tennessee. Could it be that this was a different Titans teams? With both the Titans and Colts going to the playoffs last year, could the Titans have been 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Colts? The question stands can a Colts team that is averaging 330 passing yards per game be stopped by a Titans defense that is allowing an NFL leading 282 passing yards per game? Another important question is how does Collins, and a Titans team allowing 27 points per game for the first time in many years, keep up on offense? One thing that definitely needs to be kept in mind is that the Under Total Points is 7-1 in their past meetings.

Can the BALTIMORE RAVENS recover? Coming up short at the end versus the Patriots, the Ravens will look to conquer the Cincinnati Bengals at their weakest point, the pass defense. Sacrificing 242 passing yards per game, the Bengals defense will be faced with a daunting task stopping Flacco, 94.3 rating. Especially given that the Ravens swept the Bengals in 2008 going 2-0 Straight Up ('SU') AND ATS. Having only put up 154 offensive yards here in 2008, the Bengals will not be able to afford the same mistakes that plagued them versus the Browns last week.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

With few Key Trends to speak of this week, I am left to revisit Buffalo where the BUFFALO BILLS, 8-1 ATS in their past 9 October Home games, face the Cleveland Browns. What is interesting is that the Browns are not only 2-0 ATS in their last two matchups with the Bills, but are 6-2 ATS versus the NFC East over the last two years. The Browns shutting out both the Bills and Dolphins over the last four years. With both these teams allowing over 29 points per game, look for a high flying contest.
ADVANTAGE BROWNS

FIRST LOOK




KING TRENDS

One team that NY Jets management would want to see after last week's loss is the MIAMI DOLPHINS. For while the Fins do arrive off a big victory with Henne, 69.9 rating on a 5.05 yards per attempt, the Jets are an amazing 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups in Miami. Favored by as many as 6.5 and Underdogs by as many as 8.5 points, the Jets largest margin of victory was as recent as 2007 winning by 27 points. Last year Favre needed just 15 completions to put it away. Having faced his first defeat, Sanchez, himself only with a 71.2 rating, will need to find a way to take advantage of a Dolphins D allowing 239 passing yards per game. At the same time, the defense will need to stop a Miami rush attack averaging 184 rushing yards per game; far different from the 49 rushing yards the Fish put up in Week 1 of 2008.
ADVANTAGE NY JETS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 10.7.09
updated 10.9.09