Week 4 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

You almost have to start the day in Minnesota where the Vikings ready for battle. The numbers can easily fool observers because although the Green Bay Packers arrive 3-0 Against The Spread ('ATS') in Minnesota in their last 3 matchups here, outscored by nearly 7 points in 2006 and 2007, the Viking narrowly escaped with a 1 point Straight Up ('SU') victory in 2008. Having almost given the game away on 3 interceptions in 2008, Vikings fans will hope that Peterson can run for another 192 yards.

Across the river in the AFC North, there were few shining moments during Marinelli's reign in Detroit. One of them happened to be his run in Chicago where he went 2-1 ATS versus the CHICAGO BEARS in their matchups here. The Lions have entered as Underdogs by as much as 13 points, including the 2007 monster upset, which was one of the the Lions last victories prior to the win last week. They will look to test a Bears team, outscoring opponents by only 1 point per game, who have not won as a 10+ point Favorites since early 2006. Can the Bears turn the tide as 10.5 favorites?

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Don't believe the hype in Houston where the Texans welcome the Raiders for the first time after going 2-1 ATS in Oakland over the last 3 years. It is important to remember that as 7 point favorites in 2008, Oakland's Russell played his best NFL game to date to sink the Texans. With both of these teams outscored by an average of 7 points per game, it is hard to digest a Texans defense that is allowing over 460 yards per game to the opposition.

FIRST LOOK

One thing is for sure in the recent history between the Cincinnati Bengals and CLEVELAND BROWNS is that there has been a split in both 2007 and 2008. What is interesting is that the Bengals are 3-1 ATS in Cleveland over the last 4 years, including shutting out the Browns in 2006 and 2008. Last year, the Bengals victory coming on only 5 Fitzpatrick completions and 141 rushing yards. Unbelievably, the Browns had less yards. After Pittsburgh, repeating 3 takeaways is a very realistic possibility for Cincinnati's defense.
ADVANTAGE BENGALS

If there was ever a team that the Niners want to see after losing Gore, and a last minute victory to Favre, it is the St. Louis Rams, who are 1-2 ATS in San Francisco in the last three matchups. What may be more challenging to the Niners is being double digit Favorites; a position where they have not been since 2003. Additionally, the Niners will have to find a way to overcome the loss of Gore's 6.2 yards per rush and 7.1 yards per reception given their air attack is only averaging 164.3 yards per game. Singletary has to be happy to see a Rams team that has been outscored by an average of 16 points on only 275 offensive yards per game.
ADVANTAGE 49ERS

KING TRENDS

With fans on LinkedIn asking why Owens was brought in given their 186.7 passing yards per game, the Buffalo Bills get a break with this week with Pennington's injury. For those who do not remember, it was Pennington's 314 passing yards, 175 yards to Ginn, Jr. that sank the Bills here in 2008. Henne, 44.2 rating steps into the helm. With Lynch back in the lineup for Buffalo, who averaged 4.1 yards per rush, and more importantly 6.4 yards per reception, the Bills arrive 0-2 ATS after going 4-0 ATS versus the Dolphins the two previous years. The key is the that the Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in Miami over the last 5 years.
ADVANTAGE BILLS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 9.29.09
updated 10.3.09