Week 3 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

The word of the week in Week 3 is 'traction', and if there were ever two teams looking to find it, it is the Miami Dolphins and the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS; the fish looking to continue its 6-1 run ATS versus the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS. Managing only 65 rushing yards per game, the Fish, who are 2-0 ATS over the last five years will hope to match the 400 yard effort they managed in Miami last year.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

If there was every game to avoid the hype, it is Oakland where it is easy to be blinded by the fact that the OAKLAND RAIDERS are 5-1 Against the Spread ('ATS') in their last 6 matchups with the Denver Broncos. Upon closer look, one sees that the Broncos, who have only allowed 6.5 points per game on +4 turnovers while averaging over 375 yards of offense, won that single game ATS here in Oakland in 2008. Given that the Raiders are being outscored, and are only mustering 263 yards per game, the evidence seems to favor Orton, 90.9 rating, and Buckhalter, 7.2 yards per carry, to repeat the 41-14 beating that was handed down on opening day last year.

FIRST LOOK

With so many of eyes drawn to Atlanta, Minnesota, and New Orleans, the team that fans should be watching this week is the BALTIMORE RAVENS, who in going 2-0 ATS, and 11-2 in their last 13 regular season game are averaging over 400 offensive yards per game. After going 0-4 ATS in the 2006-2007 versus the Cleveland Browns, who arrive allowing 30.5 points per game, the Ravens turned the tide going 2-0 ATS in their matchups with in 2008 by outscoring the Browns by 10 or more points per game. Having won by 18 points in Baltimore last year, if the spread pushes past -13, they will be facing the largest spread that they have been favored by since their 2000 matchup with the Browns that they won by 37 points. The last 13 point spread was a 2006 battle with the Raiders that was won by 18 points.
ADVANTAGE RAVENS

Our next turn to takes us to the other side of the AFC North where the surging CINCINNATI BENGALS will attempt to turn the tide on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who arrive 0-2 ATS only 13.5 offensive points per game. The Steelers arrive in Cincinnati where they have gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups, including the 2005 playoffs. What is even more impressive is that the Steelers have outscored the Bengals by an average of 15 points in their last 3 games here. Favored by as many as 8.5 points, the Steelers, who have struggled as Road Favorites going 1-3 ATS since 2008 will look to find their winning ways.
ADVANTAGE STEELERS

KING TRENDS

If there was ever a team that Sanchez,91.3 rating on 8.2 yards per completion, wants to see on Sunday, it is the struggling Tennessee Titans, who are allowing 339 passing yards per game. Allowing only 8 points per game, the NEW YORK JETS, arrive 3-0 ATS since Mangini's arrival, including an 21 point margin a year ago in Tennessee as Johnson was held to only 46 rushing yards.
ADVANTAGE JETS

If there was ever a game that is flying under the radar it is in Houston where the HOUSTON TEXANS look to continue their winning streak against a Jaguars team that is only managing 14.5 points game. Sporting one of the most porous pass defenses in the league allowing 279.5 passing yards per game, the Jaguars arrive 0-3 ATS in their last three matchups here, and 8-16 ATS as Road Underdogs since 2000. Having not won since Dom Capers was guiding the Texans, Jacksonville as lost by an average of 15 points per game during the run. Although the ratings will not be high, there will be some that tune in to see Garrard, 72.7 rating, struggle.
ADVANTAGE TEXANS


THE DIRECTOR

© M.O. Productions 9.22.09
updated 9.25.09