Week 2 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

'Don't believe the hype' of the 1-4 ATS. The Baltimore Ravens did arrive in San Diego in 2007 as 8 point Underdogs. Losing by 10 points, it was the first of a 6 game winning streak that led the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS to the playoffs. The Ravens will need more than the 59 yards McGahee rushed for, and 191 passing yards that Boller passed for back in 2007.

If there was ever a test for the ATLANTA FALCONS, it is the arrival of the Carolina Panthers, who are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 matchups in Atlanta. 'Don't believe the hype', and be sure to read between the lines because the one loss to the Falcons came here in 2008 by 17 points as the Falcons put up nearly 400 yards of offense while allowing only 1 sack. It should also be noted that the Panthers allowed 5 sacks to the Eagles in their opener as Delhomme was sacked 4 times on his 14.7 rating. 14.7 rating is not a misprint. If the Falcons can also hold the Panthers to 2.9 rushing yards per carry, the trend will definitely be turned in their direction.

If you were looking for the trend that is the hardest to believe this week, it would be in Detroit where the MINNESOTA VIKINGS arrive 2-2-1 ATS ('Against the Spread') over the last 5 years; the line averaging -3 to +3 until last year's -10 spread. In case you had forgotten, the Vikings barely earned a 'W' as Frerotte passed for only 70 yards and 2 interceptions. Frerotte very different from Favre who already is powering a 95.3 rating after his opening day victory over the Browns. We will all have our sets tuned to see if Stafford, 27.4 rating, can pass for more than the 14 completions that Culpepper managed here in 2008.

FIRST LOOK

One game you weren't looking at is in Denver where the DENVER BRONCOS take on the visiting Browns. The Broncos are not only 2-0 ATS over the last three years, but Cutler and Company put up 565 yards last year. 565 is not a misprint. With Cleveland already facing a rash of injuries, look for Orton, who is surprised everybody with a 100.7 rating to impersonate Minnesota's game plan, and wear down the Browns defense.
ADVANTAGE BRONCOS

If there is one place the New York Giants can't call home, it is Dallas. As the Underdog in 3 of the last 4 games with the DALLAS COWBOYS in the old Texas stadium, the Giants have gone 1-3 ATS, including being outscored by an average of 11 points in their last 2 matchups here. Their problems are compounded by the fact that their rushing attack struggled in both those matchups with Ward at the helm. Now who will fill the void? Even more interesting, the Giants only loss ATS as Road Underdogs in both 2007 and 2008 came at the hands of the Cowboys.
ADVANTAGE COWBOYS

KING TRENDS

If there was ever a team that the TENNESSEE TITANS would like to see in their Home opener, it is the Houston Texans, who are 0-3 ATS in their last three visits to Tennessee. Favored by more points than they have been since 2003, the Titans, who were able to power out 320 yards versus a strong Steelers defense, will look to recover versus a Texans team that managed over 20 points just once here in 2006, and not defeated the Titans since 2004.
ADVANTAGE TITANS

If there was one division that goes by the trends, it is the NFC West where the Seattle Seahawks enter San Francisco 3-1 ATS over the last 4 years in San Francisco. Having outscored the Niners by nearly 20 points in the last two matchups here, look for Hasselbeck, 96.9 rating, to be more careful with the rock, and rely on his defense's ability to rush Hill.
ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 9.15.09
updated 9.16.09