Week 1 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

If there was ever a place to start the season, it has to be in Cleveland where the CLEVELAND BROWNS, who are 0-4 ATS on Opening Day, faceoff with Brett Favre, who went 1-0 ATS on Opening Day with the Jets last year. Expect him to rely on Peterson, and put up around 200 yards passing.

Looking to repeat his success in their Home opener as well is Drew Brees, who outscored the Detroit Lions by 35 points in 2008 in Detroit on 351 passing yards.


DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Before you pull trigger on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 'don't the hype', and remember that the only Straight Up ('SU')/Against the Spread ('ATS') loss for the Steelers in last 6 regular season games of 2008 was against the Tennessee Titans, who powered 5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and 2 interceptions in their last matchup.

Interesting looking through the 2008 statistics to see that the ARIZONA CARDINALS' 2nd ranked passing attack had the #1 and #2 receivers in 2008 by receptions, it is also interesting to note the Cardinals matchups with the 49ers, who hope to improve on their 23rd ranked offense. What is interesting is that the Cardinals are 0-2 Against the Spread ('ATS') at Home under Whisenhunt, and have not won ATS versus the Niners at Home since 2003; the spread averaging over 9 points per game. What is wild is that the Cardinals are 2-0 ATS on opening days and 5-0 ATS in San Francisco over the last 4 years. Opening the last three years with the 49ers, the Cardinals were able to defeat the Niners here in 2006 by 7 points on opening day.

FIRST LOOK

I had to laugh when I read a fantasy article about Peyton Manning struggling during preseason. I focus more on the fact that the NY GIANTS averaged 157 rushing yards per game in 2008. If there was ever a game to get the engine started, it is versus the Washington Redskins, who are 1-4 Against the Spread ('ATS') in their matchups with the Giants in NY since Coughlin's arrival. It is interesting to note in their 2008 Opening Day defeat of the Redskins last year, Burress powered 133 receiving yards; in their second matchup when they defeated the Redskins by 16 points, Burress did not have a single receiving yard. So 'don't believe the hype'. Having gone 1-5 ATS in their last 6 matchups, look for the Redskins and Campbell, who only averaged 150 passing yards per game versus the Giants in 2008 to find the return of Umenyiyora a tough start to the season.
ADVANTAGE NY GIANTS

Sketching my thoughts for my Week 1 Key NFL Trends column, I find it intriguing that the early line on the game is resting at 10 points. Even with the departure of Vrabel from the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, and the arrival of Owens to the Buffalo Bills, the books don't seem to believe that Jauron will be able to recapture the magic that propelled him to his last victory Against the Spread ('ATS') versus the Pats upon his arrival to Buffalo on opening day in 2006. Jauron and the Bills losing 19-17. Instead, there seems to be a feeling that the Patriots who have won the last five straight matchups ATS, and that last eleven Straight Up ('SU'), will continue their winning ways. While the Bills enter 4-0 ATS on opening day over the last four years, the real problem for the Bills will be how to generate more than the five points, and the 222 yards per game they averaged versus the Patriots in 2008. With the New England crowd welcoming back Tom Brady, look for Belichick, who has won his last five openers to capture the luck he had in both 2005 and 2007 to cover the line. His last opening day loss coming at the hands of the Bills in 2003 in a 31-0 shocker.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

KING TRENDS

If there was ever a team that the OAKLAND RAIDERS did not want to open with on Monday Night Football was the San Diego Chargers, who arrive 3-0 Against the Spread ('ATS') on Monday Night over the last three years, including a 27-0 victory here in their opener in 2006. This is the first time that the San Diego Chargers have been favored by less than 8 points in their matchups since 2006. The Raiders, on the other hand, who have gone 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Chargers, have lost their last six season openers Straight Up ('SU'),and the last four openers ATS. To make matters worse for Raiders fans, the team has not won on Monday Night Football since 2005. They are a combined 0-3 SU/ATS over the last three years on Monday Night, including being shut out twice, and outscored by 27 points per game in their last two openers. Able to hold the Raiders, Russell, and Walter to only 163 offensive yards late last year at the Chargers pounded out 372 yards, It is hard to see how the addition of Heyward-Bey will be able to empower the Raiders to faceoff with the Chargers team that appears to be back at full speed for the first time since 2007.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 7.26.09
updated 9.4.09