Week 12 Thanksgiving Trends

Courtesy StatFox.com

GREEN BAY vs DETROIT 
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5.5, Total: 55.5
Detroit is hoping to end two long streaks on Thanksgiving Day when it hosts Green Bay. The Packers have won 16 straight games and the Lions have suffered seven straight losses (SU and ATS) on the November holiday.

Both of these teams have been highly profitable bets over the past two seasons, as Green Bay is 20-10 ATS (67%) and Detroit is even better at 18-6 ATS (75%). And the Lions are a stellar 14-5 ATS (74%) against NFC teams over this same span. The Packers may win a tight game, but expect DETROIT to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide this pair of three-star trends supporting the Lions:

DETROIT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive Overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 24.9, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Play On Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season. (33-10 since 1983.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating = 3*).

MIAMI vs DALLAS 
Kickoff: Thursday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 44
The Dolphins seek their fourth win in a row when they spend Thanksgiving in Dallas, winners of three straight.
Miami has three consecutive double-digit wins, beating its opponents by a hefty 86-20 margin during the win streak. And over the past two years, the Dolphins have played better football on the road than at home—they’re 8-5 ATS (62%) outside of Miami over the past two seasons. Dallas has a habit of playing down to its opponent, as evidenced by the team’s 3-12-1 ATS record (20%) as a favorite over the past two years. The pick here is MIAMI to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Dolphins:
Play Against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Miami has played nine straight games Under the total and this three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the UNDER on Thursday:

MIAMI is 38-13 UNDER (74.5%, +23.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 17.0, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 3*).