Week 11 Trends

Courtesy StatFox.com

TAMPA BAY VS GREEN BAY

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -14, Total: 48.5

While their base formation secondary is solid, Tampa doesn’t have the kind of depth to match up with Green Bay’s many weapons, and the team’s front seven has struggled to stop the run or create pressure. Expect GREEN BAY to win its 16th straight game, and also to cover the monster spread.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also like the Packers to win big:

GREEN BAY is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was GREEN BAY 23.4, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*).

GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (80.0%, +8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GREEN BAY 31.9, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 2*).

NEW YORK GIANTS vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4.5, Total: 46.5

The Giants used big play after big play to win in Philadelphia back in Week 3, getting a 40-yard TD catch from Brandon Jacobs (on a broken coverage) and 74- and 28-yard TD catches from Victor Cruz (on a series of missed tackles and a jump ball over Nnamdi Asomugha). New York QB Eli Manning is in the midst of a Pro Bowl season (299 pass YPG, 17 TD, 8 INT). The Eagles offense is also a question mark, as Michael Vick suffered two broken ribs during the loss to the Cardinals and WR Jeremy Maclin is bothered by a shoulder injury. However, the Eagles have dominated this series, winning six in a row (SU and ATS) before the Week 3 loss, and their LeSean McCoy-led running game is far superior to New York’s minus Ahmad Bradshaw. Expect PHILADELPHIA to save its season with a gutsy road win on Sunday night. 

The FoxSheets provide a pair of three-star trends backing the Eagles:

Play On Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in November games. (29-7 since 1983.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Andy Reid is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 30.7, OPPONENT 17.8 - (Rating = 3*).

KANSAS CITY vs NEW ENGLAND
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -14.5, Total: 47

If the Patriots front seven play like they did on Sunday night, there’s no way Palko will have the time to exploit New England’s shaky secondary. And K.C.’s weak pass rush (NFL-low nine sacks) will not be able to pressure Brady into making bad throws. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to win and cover the huge spread.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend supporting the Patriots:

Play On Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night. (51-20 since 1983.) (71.8%, +29 units. Rating = 3*).