Week 6
AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.
For the first time in a long time, there are no regular historical matchups taking place this week to tap for historical trends.
While it easy to be scared off by the biggest spread of the week in St. Louis, it is even more surprising that the Packers, who surprisingly are allowing nearly 400 yards per game, have gone 2-0 ATS in their previous matchups with the Rams; 0-4 ATS the Rams have been outscored by an average of 17 points per game in 2010. Averaging 34.5 points per game, the Packers have won by 19 points in both games.
Another matchup to watch is battle in Baltimore as the injury ridden Texans take on the Ravens, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following the bye. While the spread may seem high, the Ravens have averaged over 37 points per game in going 2-0 ATS in Houston over the last 3 years; winning by 6 points in 2010. Coming off a major upset that caused them the loss of Williams, who had 5 sacks, the Texans, who are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a Road Underdog, face an uphill climb versus a Ravens offense that is powering nearly 400 offensive yards per game in 2010.
DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE
This week sees not one, but two matchups with one of the most interesting trends of the year; the Away team having the advantage. In Washington, the rivalry between the Eagles and Redskins has seen the Away team go 4-0 ATS in since the REDSKINS sweep going 2-0 Straight Up ('SU), 2-0 Against the Spread ('ATS') in 2008. Even more interesting is that the Redskins have not been favored since 2007; favored only once in the last 5 years. Arriving 5-0-1 in their last 6 games as an Underdog, look for Grossman (78.7 rating) to take advantage of a reeling Eagles team that is 4-10-1 in their last 15 games as .5-3.0 Favorites. As I wrote in Week 4, it is the under rated defense allowing only 84.5 rushing yards per game on less than 300 yards per game that has been the engine. Even more impressive is that the spread would move nearly 3 points in favor of the Eagles, who are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC, 3-8-1 ATS before the bye since 1999; a team that in averaging over 440 yards per game has been outscored by an average of 1 point per game on only 24 points per game.
The other game where this rings true is in Tampa Bay where after going 2-0 ATS in 2008, the Saints and Bucs have found the Away team also going 5-0 ATS. Not only have the Home team gone 0-4 ATS, but they have managed only 11 points per game. This spells trouble for the Buccaneers who in going 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Home games, found themselves outscored by 25 points her in 2010. Averaging only 17.4 points on only 317 yards per game, there does not appear a way to keep up with the once again high flying Saints offense that itself is averaging 31.4 points per game under Brees (102.3 rating) command. The other interesting trend here is that the Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Week 6.
ADVANTAGE SAINTS
While everyone has jumped on the Newton bandwagon, it is the Falcons fans that will rejoice this week knowing that the FALCONS are 3-0 ATS at Home versus the Panthers in their last 3 matchups in Atlanta; the average margin over victory by 15 points. While the Panthers are averaging over 425 yards per game, it is last week's beating of the Falcons at the hand of the Packers that rings loudest here as the Falcons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points.
ADVANTAGE FALCONS
KING TRENDS
THE DIRECTOR
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