2011 Week 1 Key NFL Trends

Week 1

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

While I rarely shoot numbers, is appears to be important in 2011 given the number of Favorites opening on the road, and the most games with a spread of 3 or less points in recent memory.

SUNDAY AGAINST THE SPREAD ('ATS')

VISITING FAVORITES ATS          FAVORITES OF 3 OR LESS PTS
    2010 2-3-1                                     2010 2-3-1
    2009 1-1-0                                     2009 1-1
    2008 1-3-0                                     2008 1-3-0

FAVORITES OF 3.5 TO 5 PTS   FAVORITES OF 6 OR MORE PTS
    2010 1-1-2                                     2010 2-1
    2009 4-2                                        2009 4-2
    2008 2-2                                        2008 2-2

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ('MNF')

After going 2-0 ATS in 2008, Favorites are 0-4 ATS on Opening Day over the last two seasons.

Although the Philadelphia Eagles and the ST. LOUIS RAMS have not faced off since opening day in 2008 when the Eagles beat the Rams 38-3, there are two very important numbers in this game. With the Rams closing out 2010 averaging only 15.2 points per game ('PPG'), they are 4-24 ATS since 2000 AS Division Home Underdogs of 3 or more points.  The spread already moving in the Eagles favor from the opener of 4.5 points.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

One has to wonder about the moves of the BALTIMORE RAVENS.  Having gone 1-2-1 ATS in their last four versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, 0-3 ATS at Home in their last 3 matchups, the Ravens moves in the offseason are particularly confusing as the only win ATS over the last two years came on the back of of McGahee, Heap, and Mason.  Averaging only 152 passing yards per game ('PYPG') in its last 5 games of 2010, are these really the players the team should have considered parting ways with? On the other side of the ball, the Steelers arrive closing 2010 4-1 ATS in last five regular season games, and 7-2 ATS including playoffs; the Steelers powering 369.2 offensive yards per game during the regular season run.  With Roethlisberger closing with a 97 rating, and Flacco at a 93.6 rating, this will be a classic chess game all the way to the finish.
ADVANTAGE STEELERS

KING TRENDS

If there was ever a year where the trends will be put to work it is 2011. If there was ever a week, it will be opening weekend. If there was ever a game that fit the bill, it is the New England Patriots, who concluded the 2010 Regular Season 4-1 ATS in their last five games; outscoring their opponents by over 27 points PPG on 36.8 PPG. Although Belichik is a slow starter going 2-3 ATS, 1-0 ATS on the Road in his last five opening days, their opponent, the MIAMI DOLPHINS closed 2010 on a failing track going 1-4 ATS in their last five games; averaging only 13.6 PPG on only 187 passing yards per game ('PYPG'). This is particular troubling for the Fish, who are 0-2 ATS in their last two games versus the Patriots, and 1-3 ATS at Home in their recent matchups; Underdogs by as much as 16 points in 2007. While Sparano scared many Patriots faithful with his sweep ATS in 2009, the Dolphins inability to beat the Pats last year when Brady managed only 146 passing yards (due to four interceptions of their own) leaves little hope that the Dolphins can keep their opening day winning streak alive; 1-3-1 ATS in their last five opening days. The Fish's first opening day in Miami since 2008, 2004 was the last time the Patriots were favored by 4 or less points over the Dolphins.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS

THE DIRECTOR
updated 8.6.11