Week 7 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

History plays a minimal role in lucky Week 7. This is a week to read through the lines. Few would have guessed that the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS would be 4-1 ATS with the leading rushing attack managing 164.6 rushing yards per game. Fewer would have guessed that the Chiefs, 0-3 ATS as Favorites over the last three years, could have gone 1-0 ATS last year versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Outscored by an average of 9 points per game, the Jaguars arrive 1-2 ATS after Monday Night Football since Del Rio's arrival, 0-7 ATS off a loss to a Divisional Rival over the last three seasons. With both of these teams managing less than 167 passing yards per game, this won will be one on the ground. 84% of the BetUS Public believing that the Chiefs, who have are favored by the largest spread since the middle of the 2007 season can pull this one off on the back of Cassel, 84.5 rating.

It is interesting to think that the Pittsburgh Steelers are 1-1 ATS versus the Dolphins over the last three years; in 2007 winning 3-0 and in 2009 winning by 30-24. The question is whether either one of those games is reflective of the year's Steelers, 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS in October over the last three seasons, and their league leading rushing defense. The Fish, 0-3 ATS versus the AFC North over the last three seasons, 1-5 ATS as 3 point or less Favorites over the last three seasons, will believe that Wake, 6 sacks, can disrupt Roethlisberger, who has returned with a 112.7 rating. Alternatively, they Dolphins, who have one of the league's best 3rd down percentage at 49.3 percentage, can exploit the Steelers through the air.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

It is hard to believe that #1 and #3 passing attacks in the San Diego Chargers and the DENVER BRONCOS, who are averaging 311 passing yards per game, could be struggling so much. It is also hard to believe that the Oakland Raiders, who enter unsure who will be the quarterback, averaging less than 300 offensive yards per game, are 3-0 ATS in their last three games under Kiffin, and 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Denver. Even more impressive is that they are 2-0 SU in their last two visits to Mile High. Interestingly, the spread has not been this low (under 10 points) since 2003. Oakland will hope that its 8th ranked passing defense can create opportunity versus the Broncos, who have allowed 13 sacks while managing only 7 this year.

FIRST LOOK

Having shocked the Chicago Bears last week on the Road, Carroll will be looking to turn the tide versus the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals, 9-1 ATS in Weeks 5-9 and 7-1 ATS in October over the last three seasons arrive 5-1 ATS versus the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS since Whisnehunt's arrival. Of course, this is a very different Cardinals team that is managing only 225 offensive yards per game, and allowing nearly 400 yards per game. Outscored by nearly 10 points per game in 2010, the Cardinals, who are 12-6 ATS after they bye week since 1993, arrive as Underdogs for the second time over the last three years. The Seahawks, who are powering 17 sacks will look to take advantage of a Cardinals' offense allowing 19 sacks this season and converting on only 29.5 3rd down percentage this season.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS

To the palace we go for MNF where the unpredictable N.Y. Giants face the DALLAS COWBOYS, who are a surprising 1-4 ATS thus far in 2010. Allowing only 180+ yards per game, the boys will hope to find a way to stop a Giants offense that has powered over 30 points per game to New York in three of its last four matchups. Interestingly have gone 1-3 ATS in those matchups, Phillips had gone 3-1 ATS from 2007 to 2008. Having also gone 2-1 ATS until last year's loss SU and ATS, the question will be how Romo, 93.6 rating, can navigate the NFL's #2 defense in the Giants powering 21 sacks in 2010. With both of these teams entering with negative turnover ratios, this one will come down to who can make the fewest mistakes; New York fans hoping that Manning can reproduce the 330 passing day he managed here in 2009.
ADVANTAGE GIANTS

KING TRENDS




THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 10.23.10
updated 10.23.10