Week 1 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

Until Spiller's arrival this preseason, there seemed little question that the Miami Dolphins could continue their 3-1 run ATS versus the BUFFALO BILLS in their last four matchups; outscoring the Bills by an average of over 16 points per game in those victories. Interestingly, the one loss came in Buffalo came last year in Week 12 at the hands of Fitzpatrick's 246 passing yards and 73 rushing yards. Buffalo's Edwards returns to the helm having completed only 14 passes in last year's loss to the Fish. The biggest challenge for the Dolphins is their historically slow start; the Fish have not won ATS in Week 1 since 2005 when Nick Saban arrived. Although the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Road games versus the NFC East, Miami fans know that their team is 1-1-8 record ATS over Weeks 1 and 2 since 20O5

If only the 2010 preseason had not taken place, and even more I didn't watch, one of the most solid trends in Week 1 would have been in Chicago where the CHICAGO BEARS enter 3-1 ATS in their last four matchups with the Detroit Lions. Even more impressive has been the 4-0 run SU versus the Lions. Ironically, defense has played a very small role as the Lions have averaged over 23 points while allowing an average of over 42 points per game in 2009. With Stafford returning as the starter for Detroit, managing 296 passing yards in Week 4, expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Unfortunately, neither of these teams can take comfort in starting with a divisional matchup as the Bears arrive 2-6 ATS in their lass 8 Home games versus the NFC and the Lions arriving 0-3-1 ATS on the Road versus the NFC North.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

The NFL has definitely done its best in Week 1 to put handicappers on their toes. One of the few recent rematches is the Green Bay Packers matchup with the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. The Packers open on the Road for the first time since 2005. They arrive 2-2 ATS on opening day since McCarthy's arrival; last losing ATS to the Eagles back in 2007 in a 16-13 SU victory. On a 7-0-1 run ATS since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 8 last year, the public has fallen early and hard for the Packers; the spread by unbelievable 4 points since the lined opened this summer. Knowing that the Eagles are 1-4 ATS as Home Underdogs in their five matchups, Philly fans hope that Kevin Kolb shows the firepower that led him to a 1-1 record ATS in his 2009 starts. Kolb averaging over 350 passing yards per game in his starts versus the Eagles and Chiefs. Additionally, they will hope that McCarthy will continue his struggles versus the NFC East, 2-5 ATS since arriving in 2006...How far we have come from the 2007 matchup when Favre faced off with McNabb...

FIRST LOOK




KING TRENDS

In one of the more interesting early trends, the Dallas Cowboys visit the WASHINGTON REDSKINS where the Away team is 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups in the series. Just as the Playoff fumble haunts Romo, McNabb has to have last year's back-to-back SU/ATS losses to close the season, and open the playoffs ringing in his ears; particularly interesting were his numbers against the Cowboys during the 2009 regular season managing only 1 touchdown pass on an average of only 224 passing yards per game. With the curse of HARD KNOCKS behind him, Philips brings a perfect record on opening day to team since arriving in 2007.
ADVANTAGE COWBOYS

The only thing that hold the San Diego Chargers back to open 2010 is their legendary slow start on Week 1. Injuries taking a toll in both 2008 and 2009 as the Chargers went 0-2 ATS. Expect the chargers to draw on the experience learned in Oakland last year, and be focussed for the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS defense that has been unable to slow Rivers and company since Cassel's arrival from New England; the Chargers on a 2-0 run ATS outscoring the Chiefs by an average of nearly 29 points per game on average of 40 points per game in 2009. With Sproles getting the majority of the carries in both these games, there seems little evidence that the hype of Arrowhead stadium could slow the Chargers like Oakland did last year. If anything, the addition of Matthews may add even more firepower.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

THE DIRECTOR
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