Conference Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.


DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

It is hard not to get hyped for Favre and the Minnesota Vikings, who arrive outscoring their opponents by 11 points in their last 4 games. While there are many statistics that can be thrown around in this one, the facts remain that last year Winfield and the Vikings defense caused 4 turnovers versus the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS; even with Peterson managing only 32 yards, the Vikings were able to find themselves within a field goal of victory. With the Vikings arriving +9 in takeaways, and the Saints arriving +13 in takeaways this season, the Saints arrive outscoring their opponents by only 2 points in allowing over 390 offensive yards per games in their last 4 games. Today they will have their hands full.

FIRST LOOK

It is easy to see why the public is moving the spread in Indianapolis given that Home Favorites of 7 to 9 points are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Conference outings. It is even easier to see given that the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS are 8-2 ATS after one or more consecutive wins ATS this season. Let's remember the Colts were up 9-3 in Week 16 before pulling their starters; the touchdown coming on an Addai 21 yard touchdown run as Manning left the game with a 95.7 passer rating. One thing that has flown under the radar this week is that it was not the play of either the NY Jets offense or defense in Week 16, but instead a 106 kickoff return in that game that was difference. The only troubling statistic for the Colts is that their defense has given up an average of 169 rushing yards per game in their last four games, and have been outscored by 4 points during the span. Averaging over 278 passing yards per game, Manning and the Colts, who have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games as 3.5 to 10 points will not fall victim to the Jets +7 Away takeaway ratio this season.
INDIANAPOLIS -8.5

KING TRENDS



THE DIRECTOR
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updated 1.24.09