Week 5 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.

Can one game be a trend? If so, across the county in Motown is a historical matchup where the upstart St. Louis Rams, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last five on the Road versus the NFC North, are surprisingly allowing 13 points per game with their +2 turnover ratio. Arriving off of 2 major victories as Bradford's rating rises to 72.3, Hill, 70.2 rating, knows that the DETROIT LIONS, 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven versus the NFC, and 0-6 in their last six games at Home versus the NFC West, managed only 10 points in their matchup in 2009; Stafford powering only 14 completions last year. With both teams rushing attacks managing less than 4 yards per carry, this one will have to be won through the air.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

Welcome to a week that is more about now than history, or is it? The first game on the ticket has the BALTIMORE RAVENS pass defense allowing only 119 passing yards per game for only 13.5 points per game in 2010 versus the #1 rated passing offense of the Denver Broncos powering 339.5 passing yards per game. Baltimore arriving 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus the AFC West. Orton, 96.3 rating, knows that it was the Ravens that stopped their 6-0 run ATS in 2009 by allowing only 7 points to the Broncos while scoring 30 points on only 134 passing yards. The challenge for the Broncos, 4-1 ATS in their last five Road games versus the AFC North is two-fold; firstly, they are alos 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus the AFC, and also allowing 21.3 points per game.
ADVANTAGE BALTIMORE

KING TRENDS

If there is one game that it is a surprise to me, it is that only 43% of Joe Public is on the San Diego Chargers this week. Are they scared of the last year's Opening Day loss ATS? Are they scared of the Chargers 1-4 run ATS in their last five games versus the AFC West? Are they nervous about a OAKLAND RAIDERS team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus the AFC, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as Underdogs. The key is that the Raiders are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games at Home versus the AFC West, and 162 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. Outscoring their opponents by an average of nearly 11 points per game to the Raiders being outscored by an average of over 7 points game, the Raiders will be severely hindered by the injury to McFadden, 4.6 yards per carry, and more importantly 10.1 yards per catch. Favored by less than 7 points in their matchups for the first time since Opening Day in 2006, look for the Chargers, who are 0-2 ATS in their last two games versus the Raiders, to be too much with an offense averaging over 450 yards per game.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 10.6.10
updated 10.6.10