Week 16 Key NFL Trends

AT FIRST GLANCE there are games that always look Tasty ATS in many publications as a Bullet trend only to trap upon further review. Since 2006, The Director has cleared the way for you to understand which team has the real ADVANTAGE against the Trend.


DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE

The media always needs a story, and questioning the GREEN BAY PACKERS' defense was on the block this week. What is between the lines is that the Packers are +13 in takeaways at Home this season, and even with the Pittsburgh loss are only allowing 312 yards per game in their last 4 games as they have outscored their opponents by average of 11. This spells big trouble for a Seattle Seahawks squad that was trying to get Mike Holmgren back as they have been outscored by an average of 8 points per game in their last 4 games; 1-6 ATS on the Road this year, their passing attack has slowed from a season average of 225.6 yards per game to only 188 passing yards per game in those matchups. The story that the media has missed is that although the Packers are 1-0-2 ATS versus the Seahawks over the last five years, their largest margin of victory has been 10 points twice in 2006 and 2008; Seattle powering only 177 yards a year ago.

As the world turns for the Denver Broncos, they arrive in Philadelphia where they face an Eagles team that is outscoring opponents by 12 points per game in their last 4 games. If you are confused by the spread is 7 points, it is primarily because the Denver Broncos are 5-15-1 ATS in December. With the Eagles powering 390 yards per game in their last 4 games, and 7.5 yards per catch this season, it seem unreasonable that the Broncos defense will be able to slow them down. Whatever will be particularly troubling for Orton, 89.2 rating, and Denver, who have averaged 26 points per game in their 4 games will be an streaking Eagles defense that is +17 in takeaways.

It is the game that everybody is talking about. Can the Ravens, who are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matchups in Pittsburgh, and 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matchups sweep the Steelers?

The thorn in everybody's side, Warner, 93 rating, will look to try to continue the 3-1 run ATS versus the Rams in their last 4 matchups. Outscored by 15 points per game in their last 4 games, and averaging only 266 offensive yards per game, the Rams will wait to see if the ARIZONA CARDINALS, who stalled after Warner's injury earlier this season, will fade out again. Skewed by the Monday Night beating, the Cardinals are only outscoring opponents by only 1 point per game in their last 4 games.

FIRST LOOK

We have found ourselves back where we started from as we enter Week 16. There is really only one question: Will the starters for the San Diego Chargers play the complete game? StatFox's Steve Makinen notes that the Road teams with the 11 or more wins are amazing 28-14 ATS or 66.7% since 1999 in Week 16 and 17. On the other side of the coin, the Home teams with 6-10 wins are just 71-100-4 ATS or 41.5% over the last 10 seasons. This spells trouble for the TENNESSEE TITANS, who although they are averaging over 425 offensive yards over the last four games, and are 5-2 ATS at Home this season, arrive 0-5 ATS versus the Chargers in their last 5 games, 0-2 ATS over the last three years. The other question is how important that undefeated streak Straight Up ('SU') in December is to Philip Rivers, 102.8 rating. With the Titans allowing 5.6 yards per play, and 247 passing yards per game, the Colts proved that there is still a weakness in the Titans secondary. Having only allowed 14 sacks, Young, 92.5 rating, will have to stand tall, and do better than the 13 completions he had in the 2007 Overtime loss. He will hope that Johnson, 5.7 yards per rush and 10.1 yards per catch, can do better than White did last time around.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

KING TRENDS

While everybody is focussed on the AFC Wild Card, the CLEVELAND BROWNS as evidenced by the article in my blog are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. While the Oakland Raiders did shock the Broncos last week, they are most recently 0-3 ATS versus the Browns. Makinen's study also sheds the light that Road teams with 3-5 wins are 33-38-1 ATS since or 46.5% since 1990. With both of these averaging barely over 300 offensive yards per game, this one will not be for the faint of heart as 2 of the last 3 matchups were all decided by less than 3 points. In fact, the Browns have only been favored once which produced a 3 point victory in 2007.
ADVANTAGE BROWNS

With the betting public following Chris Berman to Cincinnati, the betting public is shying away from New Orleans where the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS bring a 3-0 record ATS in their last 3 matchups with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It may understandable given that the saints are only outscoring their opponents by 5 points per game in their last 4 games in averaging only 418 offensive yards per game; teams with 2 or less Wins going 7-6 ATS since 1990 in the Weeks 16 and 17. What the public may have missed is that the Bucs are only managing 13 points per game in their last 4 games, and are an awful 1-6 ATS on the Road this year. Although their defense continues to keep them in game, allowing only 5.6 yards per play, Brees, 109.4 rating, will definitely be looking for redemption from the home crowd.
ADVANTAGE SAINTS

THE DIRECTOR
© M.O. Productions 12.25.09
updated 12.26.09